A Bright Outlook for Vietnam’s Economy in the First 7 Months of 2025

According to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam’s economy showed many positive signals in the first seven months of 2025.
Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries continued stable growth, acting as a strong support for exports and sustainable consumption.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose 8.6% year-on-year. Manufacturing alone grew 10.3%, the highest rate since 2020–2024, showing strong momentum from production.
Trade, services, and tourism all improved. Retail sales and consumer services revenue grew 9.3%. Import-export turnover reached USD 514.7 billion, up 16.3%, with a trade surplus of USD 10.18 billion.
Nearly 174,000 new businesses were registered, 1.2 times higher than those shutting down, with additional capital of more than VND 3.3 quadrillion, up 93.7%.
Average CPI (inflation) increased only 3.26%, lower than the same period last year, reflecting a stable macroeconomic environment.
To reach the annual growth target of 8.3%–8.5%, experts suggest:
Stimulating consumption (e.g., adjusting personal income tax deductions).
Keeping interest rates stable and loosening credit limits.
Accelerating public investment disbursement.
Reforming regulations, cutting red tape to attract private and foreign investment.
Promoting innovation, digital transformation, workforce development, and value chain building.
However, challenges remain. The new 20% U.S. tariff on Vietnamese goods poses risks. Experts stress the need to diversify export markets, fully use free trade agreements (FTAs), and improve product competitiveness.
Looking forward (2026–2030), the goals are to:
Maintain annual labor productivity growth of 8.1%–8.6%.
Ensure total factor productivity (TFP) contributes around 55%.
Boost science, technology, and innovation.
Establish systems to monitor growth quality.In short, the first seven months of 2025 show Vietnam’s economy is clearly recovering. But to sustain both speed and quality of growth, the government and businesses must act decisively, maximize current drivers, and quickly address internal bottlenecks.