Introduction to Ocean Outlook 2026
In 2024 and 2025, many shippers had a hard time because of trade wars and political problems.
But now, things are starting to get better for shippers.
Year 2026 could be a good time to review freight buying plans and make supply chains stronger and more flexible.
Continue reading:
⭐ Introduction to Ocean Outlook
⭐ 2026 Ocean Freight Market Overview
⭐ Six Key Factors to Watch in 2026
In 2024, the Red Sea conflict caused big problems for global shipping.
In 2025, many companies also faced high tariffs and the US–China trade war.
Because of that, some shippers feel worried about 2026.
However, we can see some positive signs. Many of the big problems are now under control and things are starting to stabilize.
For example, most vessels are still sailing around the Cape of Good Hope, but by 2025, the situation became more stable. Freight rates are slowly going back to the levels before the Red Sea crisis (December 2023).
The same is true for the US–China trade conflict. It made supply chains very difficult in 2025, but in 2026, we expect fewer problems and no major tariff shocks like before.
Some shippers may still worry about US trade policy, but at least it is now a known and expected situation, not a surprise anymore.
It looks like 2026 could be another risky year for global trade.
The political situation in the world is still unstable, and many countries are using trade as a political weapon.
In 2026, the USTR (United States Trade Representative) will start new port fees for ships owned or built by China.
At the same time, the US and China are fighting for control over important global shipping routes, especially the Panama Canal.
China has also made a new law that allows it to take action against countries that it believes are hurting its trade interests.
This means the US–China trade war is not ending yet — it may only be starting.
1️⃣ What 2026 Means for Shippers
In 2026, ocean shipping demand is expected to grow by 3%.
Many new vessels are coming, and the total fleet will grow by 3.6%, adding to the extra capacity in the market.
This means shippers may have better rates and more options next year.
Freight rates are expected to keep falling through late 2025 and into 2026, which is not good for carriers but good for customers.
2️⃣ Rate Situation
As of October 4, spot rates from Asia to the US were only slightly higher — +6% to the East Coast and +2.3% to the West Coast — compared to December 2023 (before the Red Sea crisis).
Rates to North Europe and the Mediterranean were stronger (+12% and +18%), but the overall trend is still down.
3️⃣ Opportunity in 2026
2026 is not the time to relax.
It is a big chance to make supply chains stronger and faster after the difficult years of 2024 and 2025.
Shippers should use data and market tools to get better freight rates and choose the best carrier — one that offers good service, reliable transit time, and strong network stability.
4️⃣ Xeneta Ocean Outlook 2026
The Xeneta Ocean Outlook 2026 uses ee-Sea data about global schedules, transit time, and reliability.
This helps BCO teams manage contracts not only by cost but also by service quality, no matter how the market changes.
Freight rates are going down, and carriers may face losses like in 2023.
5️⃣ Advice for Shippers
Carriers will try to protect their revenue — by slow steaming, idling ships, or blank sailings.
Shippers should not accept poor service.
Since carriers will compete hard for cargo in 2026, shippers should use data to find reliable and efficient service partners.
After tough years, 2026 can be the year to rebuild stronger supply chains.
👉 Don’t miss this opportunity!
